POP MART(09992) 东兴证券·2025-02-28 12:23Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, indicating strong growth potential and market leadership in the trendy toy industry [11]. Core Viewpoints - Pop Mart is a leading player in the trendy toy industry, with a comprehensive integrated layout covering the entire industry chain. The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with 2023 revenue reaching 6.3 billion yuan, and profits expected to grow over 100% in 2023 and the first half of 2024 [1][11]. - The trendy toy market is rapidly expanding, with the total market value expected to grow from approximately 60 billion yuan in 2023 to 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][42]. - Pop Mart's strong IP operation capabilities have been validated, with a growing portfolio of successful IPs and continuous expansion into new product categories and business models [3][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Pop Mart, established in 2010, is the largest trendy toy company in China, focusing on self-owned IPs, which account for 77% of its revenue. The company has a stable controlling shareholder and a young, dynamic management team [1][6][37]. Industry Development - The trendy toy industry is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with Pop Mart holding an 11.9% market share, leading the competition. The industry is expected to continue its rapid growth, particularly in the blind box segment [2][45]. IP Operation and Business Expansion - Pop Mart has developed a strong IP matrix, with 10 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in sales in 2023. The company is expanding its product categories and business models, including accessories and games, enhancing customer engagement and increasing average transaction values [3][11][54]. Online and Offline Integration - The company has established a robust channel network, with 87% of revenue coming from domestic sales and 17% from overseas. The integration of online and offline channels has driven significant growth in membership and repeat purchases [4][11][31]. Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The financial forecast predicts revenues of 12.4 billion yuan, 17.3 billion yuan, and 21.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 5.2 billion yuan. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [11][12].