香港交易所：南下资金持续推动交易活跃-20250302

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][12] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was HKD 22.374 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 13.050 billion, up 10.0% year-on-year. The EBITDA margin improved to 74%, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2023 [7][3] - The fourth quarter saw significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 6.017 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was HKD 3.780 billion, up 45.6% year-on-year and 20.2% quarter-on-quarter [7][3] - The report attributes the performance improvement to heightened activity in the spot and derivatives markets, with the average daily trading volume (ADT) for the exchange's spot market reaching HKD 171.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [8][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 22.374 billion for 2024, with a net profit of HKD 13.050 billion. The EBITDA margin was 74%, and the dividend payout ratio remained at 90% [7][3] - For Q4, revenue was HKD 6.017 billion, with a net profit of HKD 3.780 billion, indicating strong performance driven by trading activity [7][3] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market increased significantly, with the Hang Seng Index averaging HKD 226.6 billion from January to February 27, 2025, up 79.9% from the full year of 2024 [11][2] - The company's revenue structure is closely tied to market activity, with trading fees and system usage fees accounting for nearly 60% of total revenue [11][2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted upwards by 6.0% and 7.4%, respectively, with projected net profits of HKD 16.335 billion and HKD 18.152 billion for those years [3][12] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 28.0x, reflecting the company's strong earnings growth potential [3][12]