CGT GROUP(000066) 民生证券·2025-03-02 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic computing industry, focusing on the development of a self-reliant computing ecosystem and leveraging AI as a new growth driver. The transition towards AI and significant R&D investments are expected to support future growth [11][10]. - The company has achieved significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements through the development of a fully domestic SCADA system, which has shown a 30% decrease in procurement costs and a 41% reduction in construction time compared to traditional imported systems [4][3]. - The company is actively enhancing its AI hardware capabilities, with the GF7280 V5 AI training and inference all-in-one machine fully supporting the DeepSeek R1 series models, which is expected to generate new business opportunities in the government and enterprise markets [6][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 13,420 million in 2023 to 17,129 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [12][14]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 51 million in 2025 and 183 million in 2026, following significant losses in the previous years [12][14]. - The company's price-to-sales (PS) ratio is projected to decrease from 4 in 2023 to 3 by 2026, indicating improved valuation as revenues grow [12][14]. Strategic Developments - The company is collaborating with major AI chip manufacturers to expand its AI hardware business, which is anticipated to open up new growth avenues [6][10]. - The establishment of the "Peng Teng" ecosystem in partnership with Huawei aims to streamline hardware and software integration, enhancing product offerings across various computing environments [10]. - The ongoing reforms in state-owned enterprises are expected to bolster the company's long-term development by optimizing its asset structure and enhancing control over core assets [10].