salesforce(US:CRM) Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-03-03 02:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Salesforce, with a target price adjusted to $388.00 from a previous $410.00, based on a 21x FY26E EV/EBITDA multiple [1][14]. Core Insights - Salesforce reported a total revenue of $10 billion for 4QFY25, reflecting a 9% year-over-year growth in constant currency, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Non-GAAP net income increased by 20% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, exceeding consensus by 6% due to improved operational efficiency [1][2]. - For FY26E, management forecasts total revenue between $40.5 billion and $40.9 billion, indicating a 7-8% year-over-year growth in constant currency, slightly below the consensus estimate of $41.5 billion. This has raised investor concerns as strong momentum in Data Cloud and Agentforce is expected to be offset by weakness in Marketing and Commerce Cloud [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 4QFY25, cRPO grew by 9% year-over-year (11% in constant currency), consistent with management's guidance. Revenue growth across segments included Sales/Service/Platform and others at 8%, Marketing and Commerce at 7%, and Integration and Cloud Analytics at 12% [2]. - Data Cloud and AI solutions showed robust performance, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Data Cloud and AI reaching $900 million, a 120% year-over-year increase. Agentforce has gained over 3,000 paying customers since its launch in October 2024 [3][4]. Operational Efficiency - Salesforce utilized Agentforce to enhance efficiency, achieving an 84% resolution rate across over 380,000 interactions. Non-GAAP operating margin rose by 1.6 percentage points year-over-year to 33.1% in 4QFY25, with expectations for a further increase to 34.0% in FY26E due to operational improvements [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for FY26E are set at $40.9 billion, with a growth rate of 8.0% year-over-year. Adjusted net income is expected to reach $10.99 billion, reflecting a 10.7% growth rate [5][12]. - The report indicates a decline in the projected revenue and operating income for FY27E and FY28E by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, compared to previous estimates [12][13]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of $388.00 reflects a valuation discount relative to the industry average EV/EBITDA of 23x, as Salesforce's growth enters a more mature phase [14][16].