博迁新材：从国产MLCC镍粉龙头到光伏铜代银先锋-20250303

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic MLCC nickel powder market, benefiting from the recovery of the MLCC industry and the emerging trend of copper replacing silver in photovoltaic applications. The company's revenue and gross margin are expected to improve significantly in 2025, driven by increased nickel powder shipments and product structure enhancements [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. MLCC Industry Recovery - The MLCC industry has experienced two complete cycles from 2017 to 2023, with a recovery point established at the end of 2023. The industry is expected to see significant growth in 2024, driven by replenishment demand and the high functionality development trend of AI application terminals [12][14]. - Global smartphone and PC shipments are projected to reach 1.239 billion and 262 million units in 2024, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and 2.5%, the first positive growth in three years [12][14]. - AI server MLCC usage is expected to double compared to traditional servers, indicating a strong demand for high-temperature resistant high-end MLCCs [12][14]. 2. Photovoltaic Copper Paste Development - The photovoltaic industry is shifting towards using cheaper metals to replace precious metals, with copper paste emerging as a promising alternative. The global demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to reach 6,577 tons in 2024, accounting for nearly 20% of total silver demand [29][30]. - The copper paste industry has accelerated its industrialization process since Q4 2024, with significant breakthroughs achieved through collaboration between paste manufacturers and downstream manufacturers [3][29]. - The company has established a core powder-making process for PVD and has achieved large-scale production of copper powder for MLCC applications, positioning itself to benefit from the copper replacement trend in photovoltaics [3][29]. 3. Financial Projections - The company's projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is estimated at 90.10 million, 218.73 million, and 272.24 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a significant recovery in performance [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 688.91 million yuan in 2023 to 954.98 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 38.62% [5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.34 yuan in 2024, indicating a turnaround in profitability [5].