博迁新材（605376）：从国产MLCC镍粉龙头到光伏铜代银先锋

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic MLCC nickel powder market, benefiting from the recovery of the MLCC industry and the emerging trend of copper replacing silver in photovoltaic applications. The company's revenue and gross margin are expected to improve significantly as it enhances its product structure and increases nickel powder shipments [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. MLCC Industry Recovery - The MLCC industry has experienced two complete cycles from 2017 to 2023, with a recovery point established at the end of 2023. The industry is expected to see significant growth in 2024, driven by replenishment demand and the high functionality development trend of AI application terminals [12][14]. - Global smartphone and PC shipments are projected to reach 1.239 billion and 262 million units in 2024, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 6.2% and 2.5%, the first positive growth in three years [12][14]. - AI server MLCC usage is expected to double compared to traditional servers, leading to increased demand for high-temperature resistant high-end MLCCs [12][14]. 2. Photovoltaic Copper Paste Development - The photovoltaic industry is shifting towards using cheaper metals to replace precious metals, with copper paste gaining traction as a promising alternative. The global demand for silver in photovoltaics is projected to reach 6,577 tons in 2024, accounting for nearly 20% of total silver demand [2][30]. - The company has made significant advancements in copper powder production and has positioned itself to benefit from the ongoing transition to copper in photovoltaic applications [3][29]. 3. Financial Projections - The company's projected net profit for 2024 is estimated at 90.10 million yuan, with further increases to 218.73 million yuan in 2025 and 272.24 million yuan in 2026. This reflects a recovery trajectory following a challenging period in 2022 and 2023 [4][5][19]. - The report indicates a revision in profit forecasts, lowering the 2024 estimate while raising those for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to anticipated growth in the MLCC sector and the copper replacement trend in photovoltaics [4][19].