新凤鸣：周而复始周期新，凤鸣长空启华章-20250303

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xin Feng Ming (603225.SH) with a "Buy" rating [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a favorable long-term supply-demand landscape for polyester filament yarn, indicating a potential turning point in supply and demand dynamics [4]. - The company has established a significant scale advantage in the polyester filament sector, with plans for further capacity expansion [17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by the release of new capacities and an improving market environment [5]. Summary by Sections 1. "Two Continents and Two Lakes" Base Layout - Xin Feng Ming has been a leader in the chemical fiber industry for over 20 years, focusing on the research, production, and sales of polyester filament yarn [15]. - The company has expanded its upstream supply chain by investing in PTA production, enhancing its raw material self-sufficiency [17]. - The establishment of an international supply chain through a partnership with Tongkun Group for a refinery project in Indonesia is noted [15][17]. 2. Favorable Supply-Demand Dynamics for Filament Yarn - The inventory levels of POY and FDY are currently at low levels, with significant inventory reduction observed due to increased orders from overseas [5]. - The report predicts a long-term positive supply-demand balance, with a decrease in the growth rate of filament yarn production capacity from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026) [5]. - Demand for polyester filament yarn is expected to grow, with a projected year-on-year increase of 18% in 2024 [5]. 3. Significant Scale Advantage and Upstream Integration - Xin Feng Ming's polyester filament capacity has grown from 4.3 million tons in 2019 to 7.4 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% [5]. - The company is also the largest producer of polyester staple fiber in China, with a capacity of 1.2 million tons as of mid-2024 [17]. - Plans for further capacity expansion include an additional 650,000 tons of PTA production, enhancing the company's upstream integration [17]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Xin Feng Ming to be 1.17 billion, 1.97 billion, and 2.49 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 68.1%, and 26.6% [5].