Fuling Zhacai(SZ:002507) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-03 17:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in performance for Q4 2024, with revenue and net profit at approximately 4.46 billion and 1.53 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 10.58% and 8.36% [1]. - Despite the decline, the net profit margin improved to 34.40%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is focused on optimizing its core pickled vegetable products and diversifying its offerings, aiming to adapt to challenges in traditional consumption patterns [1]. - The restaurant division, established in 2023, is expected to contribute significantly to sales, with a target of over 1 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company anticipates stable prices for its key raw materials, which may enhance profit elasticity in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of approximately 2.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.71% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at 823.98 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.31% [8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 2.6 billion and 2.78 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 8% and 7%, respectively [2]. - The expected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is revised to 938 million and 1.02 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 14% and 9% [2]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is implementing a strategic focus on project management across its supply chain to enhance operational efficiency [1]. - Organizational restructuring and incentive optimization are part of the sales strategy to boost performance [1]. - The company is also working on product packaging and material optimization, with new products expected to launch in early 2025 [2].