Fuling Zhacai(002507) 西南证券·2025-03-03 17:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fuling Zhacai (002507) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance was slightly below expectations, with a revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2023, with a net profit of 8.2 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year [8][9]. - The decline in Q4 revenue is attributed to weak consumer demand and the traditional off-season for pickled vegetables, alongside a reduction in channel expenses and ongoing inventory clearance efforts [8]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company expects revenue growth to stabilize, driven by increased market penetration of new products and the gradual opening of the catering market [8]. - The company has experienced a continuous release of cost benefits, with a net profit margin of 34.8% for 2024, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, and a Q4 net profit margin of 36.9%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The report highlights a dual expansion strategy focusing on market and product category growth, alongside brand promotion efforts emphasizing health and quality [8]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2026, the projected financials are as follows: - Revenue: 2023A: 2449.85 million yuan, 2024E: 2407.96 million yuan, 2025E: 2545.82 million yuan, 2026E: 2676.03 million yuan [3][9]. - Net Profit: 2023A: 826.58 million yuan, 2024E: 824.06 million yuan, 2025E: 896.06 million yuan, 2026E: 971.25 million yuan [3][9]. - EPS: 2023A: 0.72 yuan, 2024E: 0.71 yuan, 2025E: 0.78 yuan, 2026E: 0.84 yuan [3][9]. - PE Ratio: 2024E: 19, 2025E: 17, 2026E: 16 [3][9]. - PB Ratio: 2024E: 1.71, 2025E: 1.55, 2026E: 1.41 [3][9].