Avic Hi-Tech(600862) 天风证券·2025-03-04 01:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [9][21]. Core Viewpoints - The global carbon fiber industry is undergoing significant restructuring, with major players like SGL Group initiating large-scale business reorganizations to address short-term operational losses. This shift may lead to changes in the market structure for carbon fiber prepregs, positioning the company as a leading domestic player in the aerospace sector for potential growth [1]. - The company has strategically invested 342 million yuan to acquire a 20% stake in Changsheng Technology, enhancing its position in the upstream supply chain. This move is expected to mitigate profit fluctuations in the downstream segment due to declining prepreg prices and strengthen its market leadership [2]. - The trend towards unmanned military equipment is gaining momentum, with the U.S. government increasing its air force budget and focusing on next-generation aircraft. This shift is anticipated to boost the demand for carbon fiber in unmanned systems, with usage expected to increase by over 30% compared to traditional manned aircraft [3]. - In the commercial aviation sector, demand is robust, with global passenger turnover projected to grow at 3.8% annually. The domestic C919 aircraft is expected to significantly contribute to the carbon fiber market as its delivery ramps up, marking a transition from military to civilian applications [4][5]. - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a new growth engine, with its market size expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025. The eVTOL aircraft, which heavily relies on carbon fiber for lightweight structures, is projected to drive substantial demand in this sector [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 5.105 billion yuan, 5.822 billion yuan, and 6.883 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to military delivery schedules. The expected net profits for the same period are projected at 1.163 billion yuan, 1.332 billion yuan, and 1.578 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.62, 25.00, and 21.09 [6][8].