泸州老窖：精耕细作稳增长，数字化改革成效逐步显现-20250304

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Luzhou Laojiao achieved steady growth in 2024, with digital transformation showing initial results. Key performance indicators such as core product opening rates, membership assets, and the number and quality of strategic terminals have all improved. The company aims to focus on market cultivation and enhance profitability through its distributors in 2025, maintaining a long-term perspective [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 2024 Performance Review - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue and net profit grew by 11% and 10% year-on-year, respectively. The company is expected to achieve record-high performance, with the Guojiao brand sales exceeding 20 billion and Luzhou Laojiao brand sales surpassing 10 billion. The digital transformation framework has been established, leading to improvements in core product opening numbers and terminal quality [3][4] 2025 Outlook - For 2025, the company will focus on six major shifts in its marketing strategy, emphasizing sales and consumer-centric approaches. The strategy includes deepening market penetration in strategic areas and enhancing digital capabilities to support sales and channel management [4][5] Management and Digital Transformation - Luzhou Laojiao's management capabilities and marketing execution remain strong, with a proactive sales team that excels in network refinement and consumer engagement. The company is leading the industry in digital transformation, transitioning from a "single merchant model" to a "single customer model" to drive channel profitability [5][6] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 31.805 billion, 33.491 billion, and 36.898 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 5.3%, and 10.2%. The projected net profit for the same period is 13.883 billion, 14.817 billion, and 16.619 billion, reflecting growth rates of 4.8%, 6.7%, and 12.2%. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 13.4x, 12.6x, and 11.2x for the respective years, indicating a strong valuation support [7][10]