TY PHAR.(002728) 光大证券·2025-03-04 01:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company is undergoing a marketing transformation aimed at long-term benefits, which has led to a significant decline in sales of its core product, the cough lozenge [1][2] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to benefit from improved market management and brand strength in the long run [1] - The cough lozenge has shown strong sales potential, with a target of reaching 100 million boxes in sales over the next 3-5 years [2] - The company has initiated a share buyback program to boost employee morale and demonstrate confidence in future growth [2] Summary by Sections Company Performance - As of February 28, 2025, the company has repurchased 12,729,618 shares, reflecting a total expenditure of approximately 93.94 million yuan [1][2] - The 2024 annual performance forecast indicates a net profit of 20-25 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 90.13%-92.10% [1] Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has restructured its marketing organization to focus on self-operated sales channels, which has temporarily reduced the sales of the cough lozenge [1] - The sales volume of the cough lozenge reached over 1 billion pieces in 2023, but is projected to drop to 230 million pieces in 2024 [1][2] Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 0.23 billion, 1.46 billion, and 2.32 billion yuan respectively, with significant downward revisions of 92%, 60%, and 48% [3] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 183, 28, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Market Outlook - The company aims to achieve a recovery in sales volume for the cough lozenge by 2025-2026, supported by marketing reforms and increased brand investment [2][3] - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the company due to its unique product offerings and strong market position [3]