PPF(300258) 兴业证券·2025-03-04 05:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by accelerated global expansion, domestic capacity release, and optimization of customer structure [4][41] - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, with significant potential for domestic substitution in precision gear components [39][40] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2103 million, 2040 million, 2550 million, and 3040 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.3%, -3.0%, 25.0%, and 19.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 238 million, 165 million, 251 million, and 312 million for the same years, with growth rates of -3.9%, -30.7%, 52.6%, and 24.3% respectively [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the years 2023E, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 25.2, 36.4, 23.8, and 19.2 [3] Capacity Expansion and Global Layout - Domestic capacity is being released, and overseas expansion is progressing smoothly, with the Thai factory expected to begin production in Q2 2025 [4][37] - The Moroccan factory is positioned as a key overseas capacity layout, leveraging local automotive industry advantages to serve European and North American markets [16][20] Humanoid Robot Business Development - The company is making significant strides in developing core components for humanoid robots, with a focus on planetary gear reducers [39][40] - The global market for planetary reducers is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2024 to 2029, indicating substantial market potential [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned for mid-term performance improvement, with expected net profits of 165 million, 251 million, and 312 million for 2024-2026 [41] - The report emphasizes the potential for new revenue streams from the humanoid robot sector and the benefits of global capacity optimization [41]