BABA(09988) 天风证券·2025-03-04 05:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba reported FY25Q3 revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.0%. Adjusted EBITA was 54.9 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 51.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.7% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 119 million shares for a total of 1.3 billion USD, with an authorized remaining amount of 20.7 billion USD as of December 31, 2024 [1]. - Capital expenditures (Capex) for FY25Q3 were 31.8 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 106%. The company anticipates that Capex over the next three years will exceed the total of the past decade, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan in cloud computing and AI infrastructure [1]. Business Segment Summaries Taobao Tmall Group - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 136.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3.3%. Adjusted EBITA was 61.1 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 4.4% [2]. - Customer management revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and increased pricing. The number of 88VIP members grew to 49 million, continuing to drive subscription growth through enhanced services [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 31.7 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA of 3.1 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10.9%. The overall revenue grew over 11% year-on-year, primarily driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services [3]. AIDC (AliExpress) - Revenue for FY25Q3 was 37.8 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 5 billion yuan due to increased investments during the overseas shopping season [4]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture with South Korea's Shinsegae to operate AliExpress Korea and Gmarket [4]. Other Businesses - Cainiao generated revenue of 28.2 billion yuan with an adjusted EBITA of 240 million yuan. Local life services revenue was 17 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA loss of 600 million yuan, primarily driven by growth in orders from Gaode and Ele.me [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY 2025-2027 are 992.9 billion yuan, 1,081.5 billion yuan, and 1,180.2 billion yuan respectively. Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 147.1 billion yuan, 184.8 billion yuan, and 200.8 billion yuan [5].