POP MART(09992) 东方证券·2025-03-04 07:43Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 124.57, reflecting a 30% premium over the estimated PE ratio of 40 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading brand in China's trendy toy market, with significant growth potential in international markets [1][7]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown impressive growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65% and 61% respectively from 2018 to 2023 [19][20]. - The company’s artist IP products are the main revenue driver, contributing approximately 77% of total revenue in 2023 [20][21]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are expected to be CNY 25.68 billion, CNY 38.58 billion, and CNY 50.37 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.91, CNY 2.87, and CNY 3.75 [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 11.77 billion, CNY 16.46 billion, and CNY 21.05 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 86.7%, 39.9%, and 27.9% [4][20]. Company Overview - The company has transitioned through three phases since its establishment in 2010: exploration, rapid growth, and diversification [14][15]. - The company has a strong market position in the trendy toy industry, with a market share of approximately 12% in 2022, up from 9% in 2019 [35][36]. Industry Analysis - The trendy toy market in China has been growing rapidly, with a retail market size of CNY 352 billion in 2022 and a CAGR of 28% from 2015 to 2022 [30][32]. - The global trendy toy market is expected to reach USD 41.8 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 16% from 2019 to 2024 [30][32]. Sales Channels - The company’s main sales channels include offline retail stores, online platforms, and innovative sales methods such as robot stores, contributing 48%, 30%, and 10% to total revenue respectively in 2023 [22][24]. - The company has been expanding its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 30% of total income as of 2024 [12][20].