BABA(09988) 华创证券·2025-03-04 08:45Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) with a target price of 176.66 HKD, compared to the current price of 130.40 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of Alibaba Cloud in the context of a new phase of AI growth in China, highlighting its leading position in the public cloud market and its strategic advantages [5][10]. - The report discusses the shift in enterprise demand towards integrated IaaS+PaaS solutions driven by the AI wave, suggesting that this trend will enhance the overall cloud market growth [9][20]. Summary by Sections Domestic Cloud Market Landscape - The public cloud market in China is experiencing a second growth cycle driven by IaaS+PaaS integration, with public cloud revenue accounting for 74% of the total cloud market in 2023, growing by 40% year-on-year [5][19]. - IaaS remains the largest segment, while PaaS is the fastest-growing, indicating a shift in enterprise preferences towards more comprehensive cloud solutions [19][20]. Alibaba Cloud's Competitive Position - Alibaba Cloud is the leading public cloud service provider in China, with significant market shares in both IaaS and PaaS, and ranks second globally in terms of product and strategic capabilities [10][38]. - The company has built a deep competitive moat through its self-developed technology stack and long-term strategic investments, making it a key player in the "AI + Cloud" development landscape [10][49]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts Alibaba's total revenue to reach 941.17 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%, and adjusted net profit expected to grow by 11.4% to 157.48 billion CNY [6]. - The adjusted EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud is showing a quarterly improvement, indicating a positive trend in profitability as AI-related revenues accelerate [5][11]. Investment Logic - The report suggests that the core of Alibaba's valuation recovery is centered around the re-evaluation of its cloud business, with future sustainability dependent on the performance of its core e-commerce business and the growth of AI-related cloud services [11][12]. - The SOTP valuation method indicates a target market value of 30,558 billion CNY for FY26, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14/12 times for FY26-27 adjusted net profit [11].