Nvidia-英伟达：Blackwell收入超预期，2025年推理爆发主导GPU需求-20250304

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $160, representing a potential upside of 33.17% from the current price of$ 120.15 [2][31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth driven by the demand for its Blackwell products, particularly in the AI and data center sectors. The revenue for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be $393 billion, a year-over-year increase of 77.9%, surpassing previous guidance and market expectations [3][5][10]. - The gross margin for the latest quarter was reported at 73.0%, slightly below expectations due to higher short-term costs associated with ramping up Blackwell production. However, margins are expected to improve as production stabilizes [5][10]. - The company anticipates a revenue guidance midpoint of$ 430 billion for the next quarter, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 65.1% [10][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending January 26, 2025, total revenue is forecasted to reach $393 billion, with a net profit of$ 221 billion, resulting in a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.89, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [3][6]. - The company generated free cash flow of$ 155 billion in the latest quarter, up from $115 billion in the same period last year, and returned$ 81 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [6][10]. - The data center business saw revenue of $355.8 billion, a 93.3% increase year-over-year, driven by demand for large models and AI applications [15][19]. Product and Market Developments - The Blackwell platform is highlighted as the fastest ramping product in the company's history, with Q4 revenue reaching$ 110 billion, exceeding expectations. The transition from Hopper to Blackwell is noted to be more challenging, but improvements in gross margins are anticipated as production scales [10][19]. - The company launched Project DIGITS, a personal AI computer capable of running large models, showcasing its commitment to innovation in AI technology [26][20]. - The automotive business reported a revenue increase of 102.8% year-over-year, driven by rising demand for smart driving chips, with a projected market space of $5 billion for autonomous driving chips in 2025 [27][26]. Future Outlook - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% for revenue and EPS over the next three years, supported by strong capital expenditure growth from major clients like Microsoft and Google [32][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for continuous product development and iteration to maintain competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving AI and semiconductor markets [32][19].