BILIBILI(09626) 东方证券·2025-03-04 12:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 186.3 HKD (171.8 CNY) based on a projected adjusted PS of 2.4x for 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The performance of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" Season 6 has exceeded expectations, which is expected to continue driving high growth in gaming revenue. Additionally, improvements in advertising supply-side traffic and user demographics are anticipated to enhance monetization capabilities [3][6]. - The company's total revenue for Q4 2024 reached 77.3 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.82% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.87%. The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 36%, up 9.9 percentage points year-over-year [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 26.832 billion CNY in 2024, 30.230 billion CNY in 2025, and 32.444 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 19.10%, 12.67%, and 7.33% [4][11]. - The company expects a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.53 billion CNY for Q4 2024, a significant recovery from a net loss of 5.6 billion CNY in the same period last year [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 23.9 billion CNY, up 24% year-over-year, driven by product optimization and increased advertising efficiency. The daily active users (DAU) reached 103 million, with a DAU/MAU ratio of 30.29% [6][7]. - Gaming revenue for Q4 2024 was 18.0 billion CNY, a 79% increase year-over-year, primarily due to the contribution from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][7]. Cost and Profitability - The company's operating expenses for Q4 2024 included sales expenses of 12.37 billion CNY, management expenses of 5.06 billion CNY, and R&D expenses of 9.19 billion CNY, with R&D expenses decreasing by 30.74% year-over-year [6][7]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is expected to be 785 million CNY, with a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss of 1.344 billion CNY [4][11].