POP MART(09992) 东方证券·2025-03-04 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 124.57 HKD based on a 2025 PE valuation of 40 times, reflecting a 30% premium over comparable companies [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading brand in the Chinese trendy toy market, transitioning from an exploratory phase to a diversified development stage since its founding in 2010 [7][14]. - The trendy toy industry in China is experiencing robust growth, with a market size reaching 352 billion CNY in 2022 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2015 to 2022 [30][32]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant growth, with a projected net profit of 25.68 billion CNY in 2024, 38.58 billion CNY in 2025, and 50.37 billion CNY in 2026 [2][4]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 25.68 billion CNY in 2024, 38.58 billion CNY in 2025, and 50.37 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.91 CNY, 2.87 CNY, and 3.75 CNY respectively [2][4]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 6,301 million CNY in 2023 to 21,050 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 36.5% from 2023 to 2026 [4][20]. Company Overview - The company has a strong competitive edge in IP (intellectual property) development, with its artist IP products accounting for 77% of total revenue in 2023, and a CAGR of 72% from 2018 to 2023 [20][41]. - The company has diversified its sales channels, with offline retail stores and online channels contributing 48% and 30% of revenue respectively in 2023 [22][24]. - The company has successfully expanded its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 30% of total income as of 2024 [12][20]. Market Position - The trendy toy market in China is relatively fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 24% of the market share, while the company itself has increased its market share to 12% in 2022, up from 9% in 2019 [35][36]. - The global trendy toy market is projected to grow from nearly 20 billion USD in 2019 to 41.8 billion USD by 2024, indicating a CAGR of 16% [30][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its profitability metrics, with gross margin and net profit margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points and 6.9 percentage points respectively in 2023 [25][26]. - The company has maintained a low store closure rate, indicating strong operational stability [12].