Avic Hi-Tech(600862) 天风证券·2025-03-04 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [9]. Core Viewpoints - The global carbon fiber industry is undergoing significant restructuring, with major players like SGL Group initiating large-scale business reorganizations to mitigate short-term losses. This may lead to changes in the carbon fiber prepreg market structure, presenting growth opportunities for the company as a leading domestic player in the aerospace sector [1]. - The company is enhancing its upstream supply chain by acquiring a 20% stake in Changsheng Technology for 342 million yuan, which is expected to stabilize profit margins amid declining prepreg prices due to short-term demand fluctuations [2]. - The trend towards unmanned military equipment is expected to expand the market for carbon fiber, with the U.S. aiming for a fully unmanned fleet by 2033. This shift is anticipated to increase the carbon fiber usage in military drones by over 30% compared to traditional manned aircraft [3]. - In the commercial aviation sector, demand is projected to grow, with a forecasted 3.8% increase in global passenger turnover and significant aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing. The domestic C919 aircraft is expected to accelerate growth in carbon fiber demand as its delivery numbers increase [4][5]. - The low-altitude economy is emerging as a new growth engine, with a market size expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025. The eVTOL aircraft, which heavily relies on carbon fiber, is anticipated to drive significant demand in this sector [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 5.105 billion yuan, 5.822 billion yuan, and 6.883 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates. Net profits are expected to be 1.163 billion yuan, 1.332 billion yuan, and 1.578 billion yuan for the same period [6]. - The report indicates a decrease in the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 28.62 in 2024 to 21.09 in 2026, reflecting anticipated growth in profitability [6][8].