BYD(SZ:002594) Soochow Securities·2025-03-04 23:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [7] Core Views - BYD's H-share placement of 129.8 million shares at HKD 335.2 per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, reflecting strong investor confidence in BYD's growth prospects and the global trend towards electrification and intelligence in the automotive sector [8][9] - February sales reached 323,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 164%, with exports continuing to show strong growth [9][10] - The company expects to sell 5.5 million vehicles in 2025, with over 80% of sales coming from intelligent driving models and exports doubling to over 800,000 units [9][10] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 602.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,057.7 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.37% [7][24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from CNY 30.04 billion in 2024 to CNY 65.08 billion in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 22.77% [7][24] - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to CNY 40 billion, CNY 53 billion, and CNY 65 billion respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25x, 19x, and 15x [22][24] Sales and Production Insights - In February, BYD's plug-in hybrid vehicle sales reached 193,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 189%, while pure electric vehicle sales were 125,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128% [16][21] - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Han L and Tang L, with prices starting around CNY 300,000 [20][21] Battery Production and Technology - BYD's battery installation in February increased by 150% year-on-year, with a total of 16.7 GWh installed [21][22] - The company anticipates a total battery output of 345 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [21][22]