GREE(000651) 华兴证券·2025-03-05 02:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances with a target price of RMB 51.75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of RMB 41.69 [1][2]. Core Insights - Gree is expected to have flat revenue in 2024 at RMB 204 billion, while net profit is projected to grow by approximately 12% to RMB 32.6 billion. This growth is attributed to a significant increase in air conditioning demand driven by national subsidy policies [5][8]. - The report highlights a positive signal from the increase in shareholding by the dealer platform, which suggests improved alignment of interests between Gree and its distributors. This could lead to a potential dividend payout in April 2024, with an expected dividend yield of around 6% [6][8]. - The report emphasizes that Gree's stock price has been weak, providing a better entry point for investors, especially with upcoming dividend announcements and a favorable earnings outlook for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Gree Electric Appliances are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: RMB 204 billion (flat YoY) - 2025E Revenue: RMB 212 billion (4% growth YoY) - 2026E Revenue: RMB 222 billion (4.7% growth YoY) - 2024E Net Profit: RMB 32.6 billion (12.2% growth YoY) - 2025E Net Profit: RMB 34.1 billion (4.7% growth YoY) - 2026E Net Profit: RMB 36.3 billion (6.4% growth YoY) [9][10][12]. - The report maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates at RMB 5.81 for 2024, RMB 6.09 for 2025, and RMB 6.48 for 2026 [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - Gree's current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 8.5x for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to its peers, with Midea at 14.6x and Haier at 13.1x [7][8]. - The report notes that Gree's TTM P/E has decreased to 7.6x, which is at the lower end of its trading range over the past two and a half years [7].