BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-03-05 10:49Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the company holding a dominant market position, achieving a market share of 73% in 2023 [6][31]. - The company's product matrix, which includes the "358" series (micro-drunk, refreshing, and strong), effectively targets different consumer demographics and drinking scenarios, enhancing brand recognition and loyalty [10][40]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth, projecting operating income to reach 41.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Background - The company was founded in 1997, initially focusing on flavor and fragrance development, and has since evolved into a leading player in the RTD beverage sector through strategic acquisitions and product innovation [18][22]. 2. Market Potential - The RTD market in China is projected to continue expanding, with a CAGR of 19% in volume and 18% in sales from 2018 to 2023, indicating substantial growth potential compared to Japan's market [6][31]. - The consumer base is primarily young adults aged 18-34, with a significant female demographic, driven by the appeal of low-alcohol, flavorful beverages [31][36]. 3. Product Marketing and Channel Expansion - The company has established a robust marketing strategy that includes a diverse product range and targeted promotions, which have successfully captured consumer interest and expanded market share [10][40]. - The distribution strategy focuses on offline channels, which accounted for 86% of revenue in 2023, with a steady increase in the number of distributors [48][51]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 1.035 billion yuan by 2026, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 34 to 25 over the same period, reflecting improved profitability [5][7].