CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(000625) 民生证券·2025-03-05 16:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is accelerating its transition to electric vehicles, with a target of 3 million total sales and 1 million in new energy vehicles by 2025 [2][3] - The company is expected to launch new models such as Avita 06 and Deep Blue S09, enhancing its product lineup and supporting its electric transformation [3] - The overseas sales are growing rapidly, with a 63.6% year-on-year increase in February, indicating a clear global expansion strategy [4] Sales Performance - In February, the company's wholesale sales reached 161,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 41.4% [1] - The wholesale sales of self-owned passenger vehicles in February were 94,000 units, up 12.5% year-on-year but down 51.2% month-on-month [2] - The new energy vehicle sales in February were 39,700 units, with significant contributions from Deep Blue and Avita brands [2][3] Financial Forecast - The revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 163.0 billion, 188.6 billion, and 212.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.1 billion, 8.2 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.61, 0.83, and 1.09 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][4] Global Expansion Strategy - The company plans to establish 8 new operating entities and 16 logistics nodes overseas by 2025, aiming to enhance its global market presence [4] - The Thai factory is expected to start production in Q1 2025, with an initial capacity of 100,000 vehicles, which will increase to 200,000 vehicles in the second phase [4]