KELUN PHARMA(002422) 华源证券·2025-03-06 07:23Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [5][8]. Core Views - The company is successfully transitioning from generic to innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant R&D investments expected to yield results in the near future. It has established itself as a leading player in the fields of large-volume intravenous solutions, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and innovative drugs, particularly in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector [7][10]. - The company has a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, with several products nearing commercialization, which presents substantial growth potential [7][10]. - The large-volume intravenous solutions segment is expected to maintain a stable competitive landscape, supported by an aging population and a solid market position [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. "Large-volume IV solutions + Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients + Innovative Drugs" as Growth Drivers - The company has a well-structured operational platform consisting of large-volume IV solutions, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and innovative drugs, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and new materials [19]. - The company has established a comprehensive industrial production system in the antibiotic intermediate sector, leveraging regional advantages [19]. 2. Sustained High R&D Investment - The company has invested nearly 11.9 billion RMB in R&D over the past decade, which is expected to enhance its position in the global ADC market [7][10]. - The ADC development platform "OptiDC" has been recognized internationally, with multiple projects in various stages of clinical development [32][34]. 3. Stable Landscape for Large-volume IV Solutions - The market for large-volume IV solutions has stabilized, with the top five companies accounting for approximately 80% of the market share [7][10]. - The demand for large-volume IV solutions is expected to grow steadily due to demographic trends, despite short-term price fluctuations [7][10]. 4. Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients Supply and Demand - The antibiotic intermediate sector has seen a reduction in outdated production capacity, leading to a stable market environment [7][10]. - The company is a leading supplier of antibiotic intermediates, with a strong market position and stable demand for its products [7][10]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 30.6 billion RMB, 28.0 billion RMB, and 36.2 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 24.6%, -8.4%, and 29.1% [6][8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 16, 18, and 14 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8].