CNOOC(600938) 光大证券·2025-03-06 08:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [6] Core Views - Significant breakthroughs in oil and gas exploration in the Beibu Gulf, particularly the Weizhou 10-5 oil and gas field, which achieved high production rates, indicating a promising exploration outlook for the region [1][2] - The company has made substantial oil and gas discoveries in various Chinese maritime areas, reinforcing its resource base and ensuring stable supply for economic development [2] - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a budget of 125-135 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on exploration and production to support steady growth in output [3][4] Summary by Sections Exploration and Production - The Weizhou 10-5 oil and gas field, located approximately 75 kilometers from Beihai, Guangxi, has a significant oil and gas layer thickness of 283 meters, with natural gas production of about 370,000 cubic meters per day and oil production of approximately 800 barrels per day [2] - CNOOC has achieved major oil and gas discoveries in the South China Sea and Bohai Sea, including billion-ton oil field discoveries, which further solidify its resource foundation [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a production target of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, with further targets of 780-800 million barrels for 2026 and 810-830 million barrels for 2027 [3] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1457 billion yuan, 1582 billion yuan, and 1639 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.06 yuan, 3.33 yuan, and 3.45 yuan [4][11] Valuation Metrics - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2024-2026, highlighting the company's resilience during oil price fluctuations and its commitment to high dividend policies [4] - The company is expected to maintain a cost advantage in the industry while pursuing high-quality development and stable production growth [3][4]