极兔速递-W：业绩拐点，迈向盈利周期-20250307

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.50 HKD [8][9]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a turning point in its performance, moving towards a profitable cycle, with a revenue increase of 15.9% year-on-year to 10.3 billion USD in 2024 and a net profit of 1.0 billion USD, surpassing expectations [1][5]. - The Southeast Asian business is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing penetration of e-commerce, while the Chinese operations are projected to see significant profit growth due to a low base effect [1][2][3]. - The new markets are anticipated to achieve EBITDA breakeven in 2025, following a reduction in losses in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia - In 2024, the Southeast Asian segment achieved EBIT of 300 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, driven by a 40.8% increase in parcel volume and a market share increase of 3.2 percentage points to 28.6% [2]. - The average revenue per parcel and cost per parcel decreased by 13.2% and 15.1% respectively, leading to a slight decline in gross profit margin [2]. China - The Chinese segment turned profitable in 2024 with EBIT of 150 million USD, compared to a loss of 240 million USD in the previous year, attributed to increased scale and improved capacity utilization [3]. - Parcel volume grew by 29.1%, outpacing the industry growth rate of 21.5%, with a market share increase to 11.3% [3]. New Markets - The new markets (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt) reported a reduced loss of 80 million USD in 2024, with a 22.1% increase in parcel volume and a market share increase to 6.1% [4]. - The average revenue per parcel increased by 44.2%, while the cost per parcel rose by 37.5%, resulting in a significant increase in gross profit [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 350 million USD for 2025 and 650 million USD for 2026, with an additional forecast of 870 million USD for 2027 [5]. - The projected EPS for 2025-2026 is 0.06 USD, with a PE ratio of 16.0x, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth rate [5].