Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is positioned in a rapidly growing phase with a unique brand value and potential for further growth in the high-end cosmetics market, which is currently scarce for domestic brands [1][2] - The company is expected to enhance its market share in the high-end beauty segment, leveraging its understanding of Chinese consumers and flexible supply chains [2] - The company has strong online sales performance, with significant growth in GMV on platforms like Taobao and Douyin, indicating potential for continued expansion [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at HKD 99.35, reflecting a significant upside from the current price of HKD 84.25 [8][9] Market Position and Growth Potential - The high-end beauty market in China is dominated by foreign brands, but the company is well-positioned to become a leading domestic alternative as the trend of "Guochao" (national tide) rises [2] - As of January 2025, the company has 389 offline counters in high-end department stores, with a recent entry into Beijing's SKP, enhancing its premium brand image [2] Online and Offline Sales Strategy - The company achieved a GMV of RMB 1.4 billion and RMB 1.2 billion on Taobao and Douyin respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 40% and 70% [3] - The average sales per square meter for the company's counters is RMB 14,000, indicating room for improvement compared to international brands [3] Product and Brand Expansion - The company plans to extend its product line with 13 new fragrances already registered, aiming to capture the growing demand among younger consumers [4] - There is potential for expanding the brand matrix and pursuing overseas markets, with approximately 15% of IPO proceeds earmarked for international expansion [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 8.67 billion, RMB 11.47 billion, and RMB 15.09 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [5] - The expected revenue and EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2026 is 35% and 32%, significantly higher than comparable companies [5]
毛戈平：稀缺的高端国货美妆品牌，成长潜能突出-20250307