SJM HOLDINGS(00880) 东吴证券·2025-03-07 06:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with a net revenue of HKD 7.47 billion, recovering to 87.2% of Q4 2019 levels. The gaming and non-gaming net revenues were HKD 6.95 billion and HKD 0.52 billion, respectively, recovering to 83.0% and 285.0% of the same period in 2019 [6] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was HKD 0.99 billion, aligning closely with market expectations of HKD 1.02 billion, and recovering to 83.8% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The company is focused on upgrading its properties, with a long-term market share target of 5% for its flagship property, and has implemented several strategies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [6] - The company does not express concern over satellite casinos potentially ceasing operations, as it believes it can effectively utilize its own gaming tables and staff to maintain performance [6] - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at HKD 28.92 billion, HKD 31.41 billion, and HKD 33.52 billion, respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA forecasts of HKD 3.79 billion, HKD 4.71 billion, and HKD 5.43 billion [6] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 21.62 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 223.8%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to reach HKD 28.92 billion, reflecting a growth of 33.8% [7] - The adjusted property EBITDA for 2023 is estimated at HKD 1.93 billion, with projections of HKD 3.79 billion for 2024, indicating a significant increase of 96.4% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive in 2024, with estimates of HKD 0.03 per share, rising to HKD 0.31 by 2026 [7] - The company's EV/adjusted EBITDA ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 11.12, 8.94, and 7.76, respectively [6][7]