YUNDA Corp.(002120) 山西证券·2025-03-07 10:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of AA+ to Yunda Convertible Bond (127085.SZ) [1] Core Views - Yunda is positioned in a growth industry with a promising outlook, driven by e-commerce demand, policy guidance, and technological upgrades in the express delivery sector [3] - The company's stock valuation is at its lowest point in the past five years, with a total market capitalization of 21.396 billion and a PE TTM of 13.4x [2] - The report highlights the company's effective cost control measures, which have led to a significant reduction in core operating costs [4] Summary by Sections Yunda Convertible Bond Analysis - As of March 5, 2025, the bond has a balance of 2.45 billion, a remaining term of 4.10 years, and a closing price of 110.53, with a conversion premium of 78.68% and a pure bond premium of 7.38% [1] - The report anticipates a continued supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market due to a decrease in issuance and an increase in strong redemption maturities [4] Express Delivery Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in China has consistently shown growth since 2008, with projected business volume reaching 174.5 billion pieces and revenue of 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 21% and 13% respectively [3] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, the business volume will reach 190 billion pieces and revenue will hit 1.5 trillion yuan [3] Company Performance and Valuation - Yunda's PE and PB ratios are at their lowest since its listing, attributed to ongoing price wars in the express delivery sector and rising costs from social security contributions [4] - Despite short-term performance concerns, the company has reduced capital expenditures to around 25%, maintains a strong cash position, and has a declining debt-to-asset ratio, indicating robust debt repayment capacity [4] - The reasonable valuation range for Yunda Convertible Bond is estimated between 111 and 121 yuan, assuming no changes in the underlying stock price [5]