Dongxing Securities Co.,Ltd.(SH:601198) Dongxing Securities·2025-03-07 11:56Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The report highlights that the GDP target for 2025 is set at 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4% and a CPI target of 2%, all aligning with market expectations [2] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market as a key economic support, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth [5][6] - The report notes that the government will implement a series of policies to enhance consumer spending and support modern service industries, marking a shift in focus towards consumption-driven growth [3][5] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - The report emphasizes the need for stabilizing the real estate market to prevent negative economic cycles, particularly in light of external uncertainties [5][6] - It outlines specific measures such as reducing restrictive policies on home purchases and promoting the renovation of urban villages and old housing, which are expected to release pent-up housing demand [10][11] - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in real estate, which is expected to help stabilize the market and improve cash flow for real estate companies [6][12] Group 3: Construction and Building Materials Industry - The construction and building materials sector is anticipated to benefit from the stabilization of the real estate market, with potential for valuation recovery as policies shift from quantitative easing to qualitative improvements [9][10] - The report recommends leading companies in the building materials sector, such as Beixin Materials and Weixing New Materials, as they are expected to show better resilience and performance in a recovering market [9] - The government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is seen as a crucial factor for the recovery of the construction and building materials industry [9][10] Group 4: Transportation and Logistics Sector - The report indicates that the government will prioritize the construction of a unified and open transportation market, aiming to reduce logistics costs across the economy [14][17] - Emphasis is placed on addressing "involution" in the transportation sector, which refers to excessive competition leading to diminished returns, and the need for high-quality development [16][17] - New emerging industries, such as low-altitude economy and smart transportation, are highlighted as future growth drivers for the transportation sector [16][17] Group 5: Agricultural Sector - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on agricultural products imported from the U.S., which are expected to lead to price increases for certain commodities, particularly those with high import dependency [20][21] - It emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of new agricultural productivity, including advancements in biotechnology [21] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector will face challenges due to rising costs and potential trade tensions, but also highlights opportunities for companies involved in biotechnology and agricultural innovation [21][20]