GTIG(002091) 西南证券·2025-03-07 15:11Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Guotai with a target price of 10.21 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 7.72 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Guotai is a leading foreign trade supply chain service company, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from overseas markets, particularly in textiles and apparel [9][11]. - The company has a robust cash position, with total cash assets amounting to 226.6 billion CNY, which is 1.8 times its current market capitalization [5][48]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion into international markets, with a focus on integrating supply chain services and chemical new energy businesses [6][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiangsu Guotai, established in May 1998, is headquartered in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province, and operates as a large international enterprise group focusing on supply chain services and chemical new energy [9]. - The company went public in December 2006 and has since expanded its operations through acquisitions and the establishment of subsidiaries [9]. Industry Analysis - The report notes a rising demand for textile and apparel products in overseas markets, driven by inventory replenishment processes [21][23]. - In 2024, China's textile and apparel exports are projected to reach 301.1 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [23]. Business Model - Jiangsu Guotai is transitioning from "China supply chain integration" to "global supply chain integration," with a focus on expanding its production bases in countries like Myanmar, Vietnam, and Bangladesh [11][36]. - The company employs a sales-driven production model, ensuring flexibility and responsiveness to market demands [36][37]. Financial Highlights - In 2023, the company's total revenue was 371.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, primarily due to challenges in the textile and chemical sectors [48]. - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend in 2024, reflecting its strong cash position and commitment to shareholder returns [48][61]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Jiangsu Guotai's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 11.1 billion CNY, 12.4 billion CNY, and 13.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 9.68 CNY, 10.21 CNY, and 10.77 CNY [5][65]. - The target price of 10.21 CNY corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.8, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5][65].