CONTENTS 目录 服务消费迎政策利好，传统消费格局改善 • 服务消费：政策催化，景气向上 • 部分传统消费格局改善 • 新消费：延续高景气度 • 消费科技：商业化落地加速 • 其他传统业态：持续变革，寻找景气拐点 3 • 投资建议及推荐标的：1）继续推荐旅游出行：酒店（推荐：华住集团-S，首旅酒店，锦江酒店，关注亚朵），景区（推荐：九华旅游、三特索道、黄山旅游、 三峡旅游、峨眉山）。2）竞争格局显著改善，推荐标的：菜百股份、行动教育、珠免集团、中国中免、华图山鼎。3）新消费延续高景气：老铺黄金、名创优 品。4）消费科技：绿联科技、康耐特光学等。5）传统零售持续调改：锅圈、江苏国泰、苏美达、步步高、家家悦。其他个股机会推荐：海底捞、古茗。 • 政策持续催化，出行链和服务消费景气向上。1）财政补贴聚焦托底式的普惠服务：育儿/养老/医疗/教育，将释放可支配收入，并降低预防性储蓄。2）需求端 主要政策思路是：提供创新消费场景，释放更多闲暇时间。中小学生春秋假的全面推广，以及带薪错峰休假的逐步落地，出行链景气度边际向上。其中：景区： 景气向上，增量项目，资产化加速。酒店：景气向上，供给稳定，个股改善。3）其他服务 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.22 服务消费新政频出，看好出行链机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.3.16-2026.3.22） | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 范佳博(研究助理) | 021-38053328 | fanjiabo@gtht.com | S0880125120019 | 本报告导读： 服务消费新政频发，看好出行链机会 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 投资观点：1）继续看好旅游出行：酒店（推荐华住集团-S、首旅酒 店、锦江酒店，相关标的亚朵），景区（推荐九华旅游、三特索道、 黄山旅游、三峡旅游、峨眉山 A 等）。2）竞争格局显著改善：菜百 股份、行动教 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for new consumption and modern service industries, particularly highlighting the positive outlook for travel and tourism [3][6] - It identifies significant investment opportunities in the tourism sector, recommending specific companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Jiuhua Tourism and Huangshan Tourism [6][7] - The competitive landscape is noted to have improved significantly, with companies like Caibai Co., Action Education, and China Duty Free Group showing strong performance [6][7] - Recent earnings reports are expected to exceed market expectations, particularly for companies like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart [6] - Individual stock opportunities include Jiangsu Guotai, SuMeida, and HaiDiLao, among others [6][7] Industry Updates - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, air travel reached nearly 95 million passengers, marking a historical high with a daily average of 2.36 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [6] - The China Household Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo showcased innovative products, such as Anker Innovations' first consumer-grade 3D texture UV printer [6] - Notable sales growth was reported by companies like Bubu Gao, with a 24% year-on-year increase in sales for its "Fat Transformation" stores [6] Company Performance Predictions - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies in the social service retail sector, indicating strong growth potential for firms like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [7][9] - Specific financial metrics include projected revenues and net profits for various companies, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated for Laopu Gold and others [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report continues to recommend investment in the travel and tourism sector, specifically hotels and scenic spots, highlighting companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Individual stock opportunities include ZhuMian Group, Jiangsu Guotai, SuMeiDa, Action Education, GuoQuan, HaiDiLao, and GuMing [4]. - The report notes adjustments in US-China tariffs and suggests focusing on cross-border expansion, recommending companies like Anker Innovation, KangNaiTe Optical, and GreenLink Technology [4]. - The retail sector saw a decline, with the trade retail sector down 3.61% and consumer services down 7.95% last week, ranking 22nd and 24th out of 30 industries respectively [4]. - Key stock performers included SuMeiDa (+14.33%), QinShang Shares (+12.58%), and Action Education (+10.30%) [4]. Industry Updates - In the social service industry, MiXue Ice City is testing fresh coffee products, and Ctrip will launch a pricing assistant feature to enhance merchant pricing autonomy starting March 10 [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to support innovative enterprises in new consumption and modern services to list on the Growth Enterprise Market [2][4]. - In the retail sector, Taobao has initiated a "Billion Spring Subsidy" campaign, while JD.com anticipates reduced investment in food delivery for 2026 compared to 2025 [4]. - In 2025, Henan province's cross-border e-commerce exports reached $3.359 billion, a 23.7% year-on-year increase [4]. Company Announcements - Lao Feng Xiang reported a net profit of 1.75496 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 9.99% year-on-year [4]. - Guangzhou Restaurant achieved a net profit of 487.98 million yuan for 2025, down 1.19% year-on-year [4]. - JD.com reported a net profit of 19.6 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 52.66% year-on-year [4].

Group 1: Currency and Trade Impact - The company primarily conducts import and export trade in USD, making it susceptible to currency fluctuations, which can impact trade operations [2] - To manage currency risk, the company enhances information collection and analysis, and has implemented forward foreign exchange contracts to mitigate risks [2] Group 2: Business Structure and Market Strategy - The company focuses on supply chain services and chemical new energy as its main business areas, with key markets including the US, EU, Japan, and emerging markets like Vietnam [3] - The company has diversified its market presence to enhance global coverage and risk resilience [3] Group 3: Tariff Policy and Risk Management - Changes in tariff policies have affected the company, but its diversified customer base and strong supply chain competitiveness have mitigated the impact [3] - The company is expanding overseas production bases to improve flexibility and adaptability to tariff changes [3] Group 4: Production Capacity and Order Management - The company’s supply chain service products, primarily in apparel, do not have fixed capacity metrics due to their non-standardized nature [3] - The company employs a flexible production model to meet diverse customer needs and has established a customer admission mechanism to control risks [4] Group 5: Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns - Since its listing in December 2006, the company has distributed approximately CNY 5.088 billion in cash dividends [4] - From 2025 to 2027, the company plans to distribute dividends two to three times a year, with a payout ratio of at least 40% of distributable profits [4] Group 6: Marketing and Design Operations - The company operates marketing and design centers in key markets such as the US, UK, Spain, and Hong Kong, enhancing customer engagement and service experience [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold jewelry and tourism sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for revaluation in the gold jewelry sector due to international geopolitical instability and rising gold prices, indicating that the jewelry sector is generally undervalued. It recommends companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Luk Fook Holdings, China Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Sang Sang [2][4]. - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with specific recommendations for hotels including Huazhu Group-S, Shoulv Hotel, and Jin Jiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, and Sanxia Tourism [4]. - Individual stock opportunities are identified, recommending companies such as Zhu Mian Group, Jiangsu Guotai, Su Mei Da, Action Education, Guo Quan, Hai Di Lao, and Gu Ming [4]. - The report notes the impact of US-China tariff adjustments and suggests monitoring cross-border exports, recommending companies like Anker Innovations, Konnate Optics, Ugreen Technology, Saiwei Times, Huakai Yibai, and Zhiou Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the recovery in consumer spending and the overall positive outlook for the tourism sector, particularly in light of the longest Spring Festival holiday in history [2][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the retail trade sector saw a rise of 0.86%, while the consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.02%, ranking 22nd and 29th respectively among 30 sectors [4]. Company Updates - Key updates include Cai Bai Co. announcing a share reduction plan and Anker Innovations reporting a significant bond reduction [4]. - The report also highlights the performance of various companies, with notable increases in stock prices for Jin Jiang Hotels (+6.24%), Shoulv Hotel (+5.69%), and Huazhu Group-S (+5.20%) [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for key companies in the gold jewelry sector, indicating expected growth in net profits and PE ratios for companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [5]. Dividend and ROE Analysis - The report includes a detailed analysis of dividend rates and return on equity (ROE) for various companies, indicating strong performance metrics for several key players in the industry [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold and jewelry sector as well as for the tourism and travel industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the international geopolitical situation is unstable, leading to an increase in gold prices and an overall undervaluation of the jewelry sector. It recommends companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Luk Fook Holdings, China Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Sang Sang. Additionally, certain bulk trading companies are expected to benefit indirectly, with a focus on Su Mei Da [2][4]. - The tourism and travel sector is expected to continue its recovery, with recommendations for hotels including Huazhu Group-S, Shoulv Hotel, and Jin Jiang Hotels, as well as scenic spots like Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, and Sanxia Tourism [4]. - Individual stock opportunities include recommendations for Zhu Mian Group, Jiangsu Guotai, Su Mei Da, Action Education, Guo Quan, Hai Di Lao, and Gu Ming [4]. - The report notes adjustments in US-China tariffs and suggests monitoring cross-border exports, recommending companies such as Anker Innovations, Konnate Optics, Ugreen Technology, Saiwei Times, Huakai Yibai, and Zhiou Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a significant increase in gold prices due to geopolitical instability, suggesting that the jewelry sector is undervalued [2][4]. - The tourism sector is projected to recover, with a focus on hotel and scenic area investments [4]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the gold and jewelry sector include: - Cai Bai Co. (605599.SH) - Lao Pu Gold (6181.HK) - Luk Fook Holdings (0590.HK) - China Gold (600916.SH) - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) - Chow Sang Sang (002867.SZ) [4][5]. - Recommended companies in the tourism sector include: - Huazhu Group-S (1179.HK) - Shoulv Hotel (600258.SH) - Jin Jiang Hotels (600754.SH) - Emei Mountain A (600238.SH) - Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH) [4][5]. Market Performance - Last week, the retail sector saw a rise of 0.86%, while the consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.02%, ranking 22nd and 29th respectively among 30 sectors [4].

Major Announcements - Cambrian reported a net profit of 2.059 billion yuan for 2025, turning around from a loss of 450 million yuan in the previous year, with total revenue reaching 6.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 453.21% [12] - Moer Thread achieved total revenue of 1.506 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 243.37%, although it still reported a net loss of 1.024 billion yuan [13] - Zhongji Xuchuang's net profit for 2025 grew by 108.81% year-on-year, reaching 10.799 billion yuan, with total revenue of 38.24 billion yuan, up 60.25% [14] Company Performance Reports - Xirong Environment proposed a cash dividend of approximately 2.35 yuan per 10 shares for 2025, based on a payout ratio of 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] - Jietu's optical connection business is still in its early stages, contributing less than 5% to total revenue, with growth dependent on various market factors [3] - Zhongying Technology plans to acquire at least 51% of Yingzhong Electric, which specializes in insulation fiber materials [4] - Xibu Superconductor's subsidiary, Juneng Magnet, will be listed on the National Equities Exchange and Quotations starting March 2, 2026 [5] - Ingrity Media announced that some of its bank accounts have had their funds unfrozen, allowing normal operations to resume [6][7] - Dayun Technology plans to establish a joint venture to enhance its semiconductor testing capabilities, with a registered capital of 11 million yuan [7] Financial Highlights - Huazhong Technology reported a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 31.19%, despite total revenue increasing by 55.85% to 18.616 billion yuan [36] - Jiangfeng Electronics achieved a net profit of 481 million yuan, up 20.15%, with total revenue of 4.605 billion yuan, a 27.75% increase [20] - Ninebot Company reported a net profit of 1.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.84%, with total revenue of 21.325 billion yuan, up 50.22% [24] - Weicai Technology's net profit reached 300 million yuan, a 134% increase, with total revenue of 1.575 billion yuan, up 46.22% [25] - Dalian Heavy Industry reported a net profit of 588 million yuan, an 18.17% increase, with total revenue of 15.501 billion yuan, up 8.54% [26]

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for 2025 reached CNY 3,989,341.45 million, an increase of 2.41% year-on-year[5] - Operating profit amounted to CNY 298,568.07 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.75%[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 129,419.83 million, up 17.05% compared to the previous year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses decreased by 1.62% to CNY 103,342.45 million[5] - Basic earnings per share increased to CNY 0.80, representing a growth of 17.65%[5] Assets and Equity - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 4,602,922.61 million, a 1.52% increase from the beginning of the period[7] - Equity attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 1,631,632.55 million, marking a 4.04% increase[7] Challenges and Market Conditions - The company faced adverse impacts from rising raw material prices and intense competition in the new energy sector, leading to significant asset impairment provisions[7] Supply Chain Performance - The supply chain segment maintained stable export volumes and optimized business structure, resulting in improved profitability[7] Earnings Forecast - The company did not provide prior earnings forecasts for the 2025 fiscal year[8]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Guotai (002091.SZ) reported a total operating revenue of 39.89 billion yuan for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 17.05% to 1.29 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 39.89 billion yuan, which is a 2.41% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.29 billion yuan, marking a 17.05% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the new energy sector, the company faced adverse impacts from significant raw material price increases and intense competition, leading to substantial asset impairment provisions [1] - Despite challenges in the new energy segment, the overall net profit increased due to substantial investment gains from the reduction of long-term equity investments in listed companies [1] - The supply chain segment maintained stable export volumes, further optimizing its business structure and improving profitability [1]