ANGEL YEAST(600298) 东吴证券·2025-03-07 18:07Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Angel Yeast (600298) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The yeast industry is experiencing steady growth, with Angel Yeast leading the domestic market. The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages and expanding overseas markets, with a projected increase in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Yeast Industry Overview - The global yeast industry is mature, with a stable growth rate of around 6%. In China, the yeast market reached 13.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.21% from 2021 to 2023, surpassing the global average [1][7]. - Traditional baking and noodle yeast demand exceeds 500,000 tons, while yeast extract (YE) is expected to inject new momentum into the industry due to health trends [1][7]. 2. Angel Yeast's Market Position - Angel Yeast has a significant market share in China, with a strong focus on research and development, and a differentiated product strategy. The company has established a robust overseas presence, with international revenue growing rapidly [1][7]. 3. Financial Outlook - The report forecasts Angel Yeast's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 13.66 billion yuan, 16.31 billion yuan, and 18.57 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.51%, 19.41%, and 13.87% [1][7]. - The EPS is projected to be 1.57 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 2.14 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.27x, 18.65x, and 16.38x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [1][7]. 4. Cost Structure and Raw Material Dependency - Sugar molasses accounts for approximately 30-40% of production costs, making it a critical factor influencing profitability. The supply of sugar molasses is expected to stabilize, potentially leading to a decrease in costs [1][7]. - The company has a flexible pricing mechanism and global procurement capabilities, which will help mitigate raw material price fluctuations [1][7]. 5. Overseas Expansion - Angel Yeast is expanding its overseas production capacity, with new facilities in Egypt, Russia, and Indonesia, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth. The overseas market accounted for 35% of total revenue in 2023, with a CAGR of 26.09% from 2001 to 2023 [1][7].