SJM HOLDINGS(00880) 东吴证券国际·2025-03-07 18:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with a net revenue of HKD 7.47 billion, recovering to 87.2% of Q4 2019 levels. The gaming and non-gaming net revenues were HKD 6.95 billion and HKD 0.52 billion, respectively, recovering to 83.0% and 285.0% of the same period in 2019 [6] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was HKD 0.99 billion, aligning closely with market expectations of HKD 1.02 billion, and recovering to 83.8% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The company is focused on upgrading its properties, with a target market share of 5% for its flagship property, and has implemented several strategies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [6] - The company does not express concern over satellite casinos potentially ceasing operations, as it believes it can effectively utilize its own gaming tables and staff to maintain performance [6] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at HKD 28.92 billion, HKD 31.41 billion, and HKD 33.52 billion, respectively, with adjusted property EBITDA forecasts of HKD 3.79 billion, HKD 4.71 billion, and HKD 5.43 billion [6] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are HKD 21,623.2 million, HKD 28,921.2 million, HKD 31,408.8 million, and HKD 33,521.4 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 223.8%, 33.8%, 8.6%, and 6.7% [6][7] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the same years is projected at HKD 1,928.0 million, HKD 3,786.5 million, HKD 4,712.1 million, and HKD 5,427.4 million, with growth rates of 96.4%, 24.4%, and 15.2% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E [6][7] - The diluted earnings per share are forecasted to be HKD -0.28, HKD 0.03, HKD 0.18, and HKD 0.31 for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [6][7]