CHINA POWER(02380) 交银国际·2025-03-07 03:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.72, reflecting a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 2.94 [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a 53% increase in profit for the full year 2024, despite a slight reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 due to lower-than-expected wind and solar power generation [2][5]. - The dividend yield for 2024/25 is projected to exceed 7%, making it an attractive investment despite the downward revision in profit forecasts [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 49,191 million, a decrease of 3.8% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be RMB 50,997 million, down 9.1% [4][16]. - Operating profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 12,438 million, down 6.4%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 14,012 million, a reduction of 16.3% [4][16]. - Net profit for 2024 is revised to RMB 4,072 million, a decrease of 9.5%, and for 2025, it is expected to be RMB 4,857 million, down 22.2% [4][16]. Power Generation Capacity and Sales - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 31,599 MW in 2022 to 65,759 MW by 2026, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [6]. - The company's electricity sales are expected to rise from 108,171 GWh in 2022 to 146,986 GWh by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the total value at RMB 42,632 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 3.72 [10]. - The valuation for different segments includes coal power at 0.70x 2025E P/B, hydropower at 0.75x, wind power at 8.5x P/E, and solar power also at 8.5x P/E [10].