Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a solid performance with a total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 854 million yuan, up 42.6% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for the second half of 2024 was 4.370 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, which is a 48.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The company improved its profitability significantly through product and channel optimization and pricing strategy adjustments, achieving an annual gross margin of 10.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Total revenue was 8.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The volume and average price changed by -4.5% and +7.0% respectively [2] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue reached 2.062 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +18.4% and +5.4% respectively [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue was 1.574 billion yuan, a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +19.1% and +9.3% respectively [2] - New Tobacco Products Exports: Revenue was 135 million yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +12.5% and -7.6% respectively [3] - Brazil Operations: Revenue was 1.050 billion yuan, a 37.0% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of -2.4% and +40.3% respectively [3] 2025 Outlook - The company expects to continue improving profitability and maintain a stable increase in per-share dividends [4] - It aims to focus on both organic and external growth, enhancing its capital operation platform [4] - The company plans to dynamically assess international conditions to ensure a stable supply of high-quality tobacco leaves and cultivate growth in emerging markets [4] - Continued focus on cigarette brand development and optimization of product and brand matrix is anticipated, along with an expansion of the cigar business and tax markets [4] - The company is positioned as the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion and related trade, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 970 million yuan, 1.122 billion yuan, and 1.222 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5X, 16.9X, and 15.5X [5] - Key financial indicators for 2024A include total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan, net profit of 854 million yuan, and an EPS of 1.23 yuan [7]
中烟香港：基本盘稳健、内生外延可期