Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - JD Group's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year and a non-GAAP net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year. This performance was driven by a significant recovery in core electronic and home appliance categories [5] - The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in 2025, with a forecasted non-GAAP net profit of 51.5 billion yuan for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 45.2 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [4][5] - The report highlights the positive impact of the trade-in policy on electronic and home appliance sales, with core product categories showing strong recovery and stable growth in supermarket and daily necessities categories [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: - 2023: 1,084.66 billion yuan - 2024: 1,158.82 billion yuan (YoY growth of 6.8%) - 2025: 1,241.39 billion yuan (YoY growth of 7.1%) - 2026: 1,315.32 billion yuan (YoY growth of 6.0%) - 2027: 1,386.47 billion yuan (YoY growth of 5.4%) [7] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are: - 2023: 35.10 billion yuan - 2024: 47.83 billion yuan (YoY growth of 36.3%) - 2025: 51.53 billion yuan (YoY growth of 7.7%) - 2026: 57.03 billion yuan (YoY growth of 10.7%) - 2027: 62.24 billion yuan (YoY growth of 9.1%) [7] - The projected diluted EPS for the years 2025-2027 are 16.2 yuan, 17.9 yuan, and 19.5 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.7, 8.8, and 8.1 [4][7]
京东集团-SW：港股公司信息更新报告：2024Q4业绩超预期，2025年收入增长有望提速-20250309