Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [3][5][19] Core Views - The company's revenue for the quarter reached 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, driven by the "trade-in" program boosting retail sales [1][9] - JD Retail's revenue was 307.1 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, with strong growth attributed to home appliance trade-ins [1][9] - The logistics revenue was 52.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [1][9] - The new business revenue saw a decline of 31% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the semi-entrusted income from Jingxi [1][9] Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 3.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][10] - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 3.2% to 3.6% [2][10] - Retail operating profit margin increased from 2.6% to 3.3% year-on-year, while logistics operating profit margin rose from 2.8% to 3.5% [2][10] Shareholder Returns - The total shareholder return rate for 2024 is approximately 7.6%, with a declared annual dividend of 1.5 billion [2][11] - The company repurchased 260 million shares, representing 8.1% of the circulating shares as of December 31, 2023 [2][11] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 1,277.2 billion yuan and 1,381.2 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.2% and 8.1% [3][19] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is forecasted to be 51.8 billion yuan and 57.1 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 8.4% and 10.1% [3][19] - The target price for JD Group is set between 193 and 205 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 8% to 15% from the current price [3][19]
京东集团-SW：2024Q4点评：以旧换新带动零售收入快速增长，公司持续优化供应链效率提升利润率-20250309