HAID GROUP(SZ:002311) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-03-09 14:06Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Trade friction has led to tariff countermeasures, focusing on cost changes in the breeding industry and the procurement advantages of leading feed companies [3] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [6][26] - The overall supply of pigs is expected to be high in the long term, leading to a weak price outlook for pigs [5][25] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The price difference for standard pigs is at a two-year high, but expectations for future prices are weak, leading to increased willingness to sell [5][25] - The latest pig price is 14.45 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 127.06 kg for market pigs [5][25] - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a breeding sow inventory of 40.62 million heads, exceeding the 105% capacity control threshold [5][25] 2. Poultry Industry - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the latest chick price at 2.7 CNY/bird, up 8% week-on-week [7][27] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream sources, indicating a new normal [7][27] - Key investment targets include leading imported breeding source companies and full-chain leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong [7][27] 3. Feed Industry - Fish prices are rising while feed prices are declining, with a recovery in aquaculture profitability expected in 2024 [8][28] - The report recommends Hai Da Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential [11][30] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [10][28] 4. Pet Industry - Sales data for January-February 2025 shows a decline in pet food sales, with cat and dog food sales at 1.377 billion and 0.682 billion CNY, down 17.5% and 28.7% year-on-year [12][31] - The report suggests focusing on high-performing brands like Guibao and Zhongchong, which are entering a growth phase [16][32] 5. Agricultural Products - Tariff countermeasures are expected to have limited impact on domestic agricultural supply, with a trend of price recovery anticipated [17][35] - The report mentions that the prices of corn and soybeans are at the bottom, with a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance [17][35] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3944.01, up 1.39% week-on-week, while the Agricultural Index rose 1.04% [36][38] - The report indicates that the pet food sector performed the best with a 4.14% increase [36][38]