Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Ping An Securities·2025-03-09 14:11Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance exceeding the market by more than 5% over the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant trends in the U.S. pension sector, noting that over half (54.3%) of U.S. households possess retirement accounts, with ownership rates increasing with household income, net worth, and education levels [2][11]. - The report emphasizes that U.S. public pension funds are increasing allocations to fixed income assets while still favoring equities, particularly small-cap stocks, which are expected to present investment opportunities due to improving fundamentals, active M&A activity, supply chain reshoring, and economic stimulus [3][14][15]. Summary by Sections U.S. Retirement Accounts - According to the CRS, more than half of U.S. households own retirement accounts, with ownership rates significantly higher among households earning $150,000 or more (91.1%) compared to those earning less than $30,000 (13.2%) [2][11]. - Households aged 65 and older have lower ownership rates, potentially reflecting a structural shift in retirement account trends [12]. Investment Opportunities in Small-Cap Stocks - NCPERS indicates that U.S. public pension funds are increasing fixed income allocations, but equities remain the largest portion of their portfolios, with small-cap stocks expected to benefit from several factors: 1. Improved fundamentals, with analysts predicting 2025 as a turning point for earnings growth in small-cap stocks [3][14]. 2. Active M&A activity, signaling larger companies acquiring attractive smaller firms [3][14]. 3. Supply chain reshoring due to rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions [3][15]. 4. Economic stimulus fostering growth in domestic small businesses [3][15]. Overseas Pension Dynamics - The Ethos Foundation has initiated an ESG engagement campaign aimed at enhancing the influence of pension funds in shareholder voting, addressing discrepancies between asset managers' decisions and pension funds' ESG demands [17][18]. - Danish pension fund PFA has reduced its equity overweight due to increased market uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff policies [19]. - The French retirement reserve fund (FRR) has allocated €400 million for investments in Japanese equities, aligning with its commitment to responsible investment practices [20]. Domestic Pension Policies and Industry Developments - The 14th National Congress has called for the acceleration of a long-term care insurance system and improvements in social security policies, including a modest increase in basic pension standards [22]. - Hainan Province has released a three-year action plan to promote the health and wellness industry, focusing on service standards and project development [23]. - The National Sports Administration has published guidelines for fitness equipment for the elderly, aiming to enhance accessibility and suitability for older adults [24].