Trade Data Overview - In January-February 2025, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 2.3% and imports declining by 8.4%[2] - The trade surplus reached 45.88 billion compared to the same period last year[2] - Adjusted for working days, total trade increased by 2.8%, with exports up by 7.6% and imports down by 3.6%[2] Export Dynamics - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 143.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%[2] - Exports to ASEAN were 87.19 billion yuan, up 5.7%, while imports from ASEAN fell by 1.3%[2] - Trade with the US totaled 102.07 billion yuan, a 2.4% increase, with exports to the US at 75.56 billion yuan, up 2.3%[2] Import Trends - Imports of major raw materials showed a decline, with food, soybeans, and edible oils down by 35.6%, 14.8%, and 8.4% respectively[4] - The import of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly by 57.7%[4] - Overall, imports of most major commodities decreased, with iron ore and crude oil imports down by over 10%[4] Sector Performance - Machinery and electrical products saw a relatively high export growth of 4.2%, while downstream consumer goods exports weakened significantly, with ceramics and footwear down by 30.4% and 18.3% respectively[3] - Fertilizer exports surged by 52.6%, indicating strong demand in this sector[3] Future Outlook - The "export rush" behavior among enterprises is expected to continue, particularly in response to external pressures such as tariffs from the US[2] - Import growth is anticipated to recover moderately as domestic fiscal spending increases and policies to boost domestic demand take effect[2]
2025年1-2月贸易数据点评：基数扰动进出口增速，“抢出口”效应仍在
西南证券·2025-03-09 14:15