Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Goldman Sachs·2025-03-07 07:47Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the industry remains stable, with expectations aligned with market forecasts for economic growth and fiscal targets [1][16]. Core Insights - The 2025 National People's Congress (NPC) has set the GDP growth target at "around 5%" and lowered the CPI inflation target to "around 2%", which aligns with market expectations [2][19]. - The official on-budget fiscal deficit target has been raised to "around 4.0%" of GDP, translating to a government general bond issuance quota of RMB5.7 trillion [10][19]. - The quotas for central and local government special bond issuances have missed expectations, indicating a smaller-than-expected government funding arrangement for bank recapitalization and consumer goods trade-in programs [8][16]. Economic Targets - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at "around 5%", unchanged from 2024, while the CPI inflation target has been reduced from "around 3%" to "around 2%" [2][19]. - The fiscal deficit ratio is projected at 4.0% of GDP, with a total government bond net issuance quota of RMB11.9 trillion for the year, which is above the previous year's quota but below market expectations [10][19]. - The local government special bond (LGSB) net issuance quota is set at RMB4.4 trillion, aimed at infrastructure investment and local government debt resolution [10][19]. Labor Market - The target for new urban job creation remains at "above 12 million", consistent with the number of college graduates expected this year [9][19]. - The surveyed unemployment rate target is maintained at "around 5.5%", slightly above the current level of 5.2% [9][19]. Policy Directions - Policymakers have emphasized boosting consumption, advancing high-tech manufacturing (including AI), and stabilizing the property sector, although specific measures are still lacking [12][16]. - The government plans to increase the minimum standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents and enhance childcare services to support consumption [13][16]. - There is a commitment to reduce energy intensity by 3.0% this year, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing and digital technology adoption [12][16]. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events during the "Two Sessions" include the fiscal budget report and interviews with key ministers, which may provide further insights into policy implementation [16][29].