高盛：在抛售期间投资标普500股息

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on S&P 500 dividends, forecasting a growth of 6% year/year for 2025, with a payout ratio of 30% and dividends of $80 per share [11][12]. Core Insights - Despite a 6% selloff in the S&P 500 from its February high, dividend futures pricing has remained stable at 1%, indicating resilience amid market volatility [1][7]. - The main upside risk to the dividend forecast is the potential for excess capital return from the Financials sector due to regulatory reforms, which analysts have not yet fully incorporated into their estimates [3][22]. - The economists have revised the Q4/Q4 US GDP growth forecast down to 1.7%, which presents modest risks to the dividend growth forecast but more significant risks to EPS growth [3][30]. - Dividend futures are seen as an attractive investment opportunity for those who can withstand illiquidity and volatility, with forecasts indicating a 2% upside for 2025 futures and 7% for 2026 futures [35][36]. Summary by Sections Dividend Growth Forecast - The forecast for S&P 500 dividend growth in 2025 is set at 6%, down from a previous estimate of 7%, with earnings growth being the primary driver [11][12]. - The consensus expects the fastest dividend growth in Financials and Communication Services, while Energy and Real Estate are expected to grow the slowest [14][17]. Economic Indicators - The combination of policy uncertainty and weak economic data has contributed to the recent selloff in the S&P 500, with tariffs impacting investor sentiment [4][6]. - The ISM Manufacturing Index has declined to 50.3, while the ISM Services Index has increased to 53.5, indicating mixed economic signals [6][30]. Sector Analysis - In the first two months of 2025, 112 S&P 500 companies increased their dividends by a median of 7%, with 17% of these companies from the Financials sector [14][46]. - Analysts have noted that certain management teams may review their dividend payout ratios, which are currently just above 30% [21][22]. Potential Catalysts - Upcoming CCAR results in June are anticipated to be catalysts for the dividend market, as previous tests have led to dividend increases by participating banks [24][30]. - If large tech stocks initiate or increase their dividends, it could present another upside risk to the overall dividend growth forecast [28][29].