蜜雪集团深度报告：平价高质茶饮绝对龙头，飞轮效应背书全球扩张

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [2]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in the high-quality, affordable beverage sector, with a robust expansion strategy driving growth. Revenue increased from 10.35 billion yuan in 2021 to 20.30 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 40% [1][15]. - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages in China is over 510 billion yuan, with significant growth potential, especially in lower-tier cities. The industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth rates [1][41]. - The company has established a strong supply chain and brand presence, enabling it to thrive in competitive markets. Its marketing strategies, including the "Snow King" IP, have significantly enhanced brand visibility [1][10]. Company Overview - The company focuses on providing high-quality, affordable beverages, with an average price of around 6 yuan (approximately 1 USD) [10]. - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates over 45,000 stores across 31 provinces in China and has expanded into Southeast Asia, with significant store counts in Vietnam and Indonesia [10][12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain, including a central factory and a dedicated logistics system, which enhances operational efficiency [10][11]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage market is experiencing strong growth, with the global market size expected to increase from 598.9 billion USD in 2018 to 779.1 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 5.4% [41]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with per capita consumption expected to rise from approximately 11 cups in 2023 to 26 cups by 2028 [41]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ready-to-drink beverage sector, particularly in the affordable segment, which is gaining traction in lower-tier cities [1][41]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 25.7 billion yuan, 30.3 billion yuan, and 34.1 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.4 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan [2][3]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 28x, 25x, and 23x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2].