Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" with a target price of HKD 7.5, based on a valuation of 0.6x 2025 PS, corresponding to an estimated market capitalization of HKD 10.8 billion [2][4]. Core Views - The company issued a profit warning, projecting a net loss attributable to the parent company between RMB 3.8 billion and RMB 4.1 billion for 2024, compared to a net profit of RMB 4.345 billion in 2023. The primary reason for the loss is the recent slight increase in silicon material prices, which may see a modest rise due to short-term demand [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 19.9 billion, RMB 16.5 billion, and RMB 19.5 billion, respectively, with net losses expected to be RMB 4 billion, RMB 2.3 billion, and RMB 800 million [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue: The company reported revenues of RMB 37.54 billion in 2022, which decreased to RMB 30.75 billion in 2023, and is expected to decline further to RMB 19.86 billion in 2024, with a projected recovery to RMB 19.49 billion in 2026 [3][8]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 13.4 billion in 2022, dropping to RMB 4.35 billion in 2023, and is expected to turn into losses of RMB 4.04 billion in 2024, with gradual improvements in subsequent years [3][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to decline from RMB 9.37 in 2022 to RMB 3.04 in 2023, and further to -RMB 2.83 in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected thereafter [3][10]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that the silicon material prices have seen a slight increase, with the photovoltaic-grade polysilicon price rising to USD 4.94/kg as of March 5, 2025. However, the overall market remains cautious due to high inventory levels [1][2]. - The company is advised to monitor production schedules and inventory levels closely, as the silicon material prices are expected to fluctuate based on market demand [1].
新特能源：公司发布盈警，关注后续硅料价格-20250310