三氯蔗糖行业专题报告：供给协同默契空前，内外共振需求稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The supply expansion cycle for the industry has come to a close, with unprecedented cooperation among major players to stabilize prices. The total production capacity of the industry has increased significantly from 12,800 tons in 2019 to 34,800 tons in 2024, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand. However, regulatory constraints on new capacity due to environmental concerns are expected to ease the oversupply pressure [7][13][19] - Demand for sucralose is accelerating as it replaces artificial sweeteners that have been flagged for health concerns. The domestic consumption of sucralose has grown at a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2023, while global artificial sweetener consumption has only grown at 4.0% during the same period. The beverage sector is projected to see a 4.9% increase in production in 2024, further supporting demand [7][32][35] - A tight balance between supply and demand is expected to continue, providing significant earnings elasticity for companies in the industry. If sucralose can replace 20% of the first to third generation artificial sweeteners by 2026, the total market space could reach 26,517 tons. The industry is projected to have a supply-demand gap of -223 tons in 2025 and 148 tons in 2026 [7][52] Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - The expansion cycle for sucralose production has concluded, with a significant increase in market concentration. The CR3 ratio has risen from 74.22% in 2019 to 83.33% in 2024, indicating a more orderly competitive environment [7][13][19] - Major companies have begun to implement production cuts to manage inventory, resulting in a total production of 19,928 tons in 2024, down 8.34% from 2023 [7][19][24] Demand Trends - Sucralose is positioned to replace potentially harmful sweeteners, with a projected market space of 41,773 tons by 2032 if it can replace 60% of the first to third generation sweeteners. The domestic consumption of sucralose has shown a stable growth trend, with a 13.04% CAGR from 2019 to 2023 [32][35][34] - The beverage industry is expected to drive demand, with a significant increase in production anticipated in the upcoming summer season [35][36] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand balance will remain tight, with limited new capacity expected in the near future. The industry is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of -223 tons in 2025 and 148 tons in 2026, indicating a stable market environment [52][7] - The report highlights the potential for price increases, with significant earnings sensitivity for companies like Jinhe Industrial, which could see substantial revenue increases with price hikes [7][52]