CTIHK-中烟香港点评报告：盈利表现优秀、卷烟出海亮眼，期待内外发力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its previous profit forecasts for 2024, with projected revenue of HK $13.074 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of HK$ 854 million (up 42.6%) [1] - The report highlights strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the tobacco export sector, which is anticipated to drive future growth [6] Revenue and Profit Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of HK $13.074 billion and a net profit of HK$ 854 million, with a gross margin of 10.54% [1] - The second half of 2024 is expected to see revenue growth of 6.8% and profit growth of 48% [1] Tobacco Leaf Import and Export - Tobacco leaf import revenue is projected at HK $8.254 billion (up 2.2%), with a decrease in quantity to 112,000 tons (down 4.5%), but an increase in average selling price (ASP) leading to a gross margin of 10% [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue is expected to reach HK$ 2.062 billion (up 24.8%), with an increase in quantity to 83,500 tons (up 18.4%) and a gross margin of 4.07% [2] Cigarette Export Performance - Cigarette export revenue is projected at HK $1.574 billion (up 30.2%), with a quantity of 3.34 billion sticks (up 19.1%) and a gross margin of 17.63% [3] - The growth is attributed to expanded operational regions and an increase in self-operated business [3] Brazil Operations and New Tobacco Products - Revenue from CBT (Cigarette Blending Technology) leaf exports is expected to be HK$ 1.05 billion (up 37%), despite a decrease in quantity to 31,600 tons (down 2.4%), with a gross margin of 17.51% [4] - Revenue from new tobacco products is projected at HK $135 million (up 4.0%), with a quantity of 762 million sticks (up 12.5%) and a gross margin of 5.2% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue its strategy of capital market operations and international business expansion, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding operational regions for cigarettes, CBT, and new tobacco products [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of HK$ 14.416 billion, HK $15.753 billion, and HK$ 17.238 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HK $958 million, HK$ 1.095 billion, and HK$1.236 billion [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.95X, 15.69X, and 13.91X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's growth potential [6]