东方雨虹：零售端韧性凸显，经营性现金流明显改善-20250310

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 28.06 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping to 108 million, a decline of 95% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 5.88 billion, resulting in a dividend yield of 18%, enhancing shareholder returns [1]. - The company anticipates net profits of 1.62 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.63 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 14.6, and 12.4 [1]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company’s revenue from various segments is projected as follows: waterproof membranes (11.8 billion), coatings (8.8 billion), sand powder (4.2 billion), engineering construction (1.6 billion), and others (1.5 billion), with respective year-on-year changes of -11.45%, -8.96%, -1.06%, -51.37%, and -12.94% [2]. - The overall gross margin is expected to decline by 1.89 percentage points to 25.8% due to price adjustments and changes in product mix [2]. - The average price of asphalt raw materials in Q4 2024 was 3,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73% year-on-year, while the average price in 2025 is expected to be 3,639 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company’s CFO net amount for 2024 is projected at 3.46 billion, reflecting an increase of 13.5% year-on-year, with cash flow from operations showing a significant improvement [4]. - Accounts receivable decreased by 2.23 billion year-on-year to 7.3 billion, indicating improved cash flow management [4]. - The company’s total liabilities are projected to be 22.47 billion in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 43.39% [8]. Market and Channel Performance - Retail revenue is expected to grow by 9.92% year-on-year to 10.2 billion, while the engineering channel is projected to grow by 6.74% to 13.4 billion [3]. - The company is expanding its international presence with new production and R&D bases in Houston and Saudi Arabia, and a logistics base in Malaysia, contributing to an overseas revenue of 880 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [3].