Workflow
极兔速递-W：全年业绩扭亏为盈，东南亚领先优势巩固-20250310
01519J&T EXPRESS(01519) 长江证券·2025-03-10 13:24

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to reach 10.26billion,representingayear−on−yeargrowthof15.910.26 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be 110 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.16billioninthepreviousyear,markingthefirsttimethecompanyhasachievedprofitability[2][8].−Thecompany′smarketshareinSoutheastAsiaisrapidlyincreasing,witha40.81.16 billion in the previous year, marking the first time the company has achieved profitability [2][8]. - The company's market share in Southeast Asia is rapidly increasing, with a 40.8% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 4.56 billion parcels. The market share has improved by 3.2 percentage points to 28.6%, solidifying its leading position [10]. - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies in new markets, leading to a significant increase in per-parcel profit margins [10]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market - Business volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 40.8% to 4.56 billion parcels in 2024, with market share increasing to 28.6%. The per-parcel gross profit remains stable at 0.14, with total gross profit rising by 34.6% to 630millionduetocostreductionsinsortingandtransportation[10].ChinaMarket−InChina,businessvolumeisprojectedtogrowby29.1630 million due to cost reductions in sorting and transportation [10]. China Market - In China, business volume is projected to grow by 29.1% to 19.8 billion parcels in 2024, benefiting from a faster growth rate than the industry average. The per-parcel gross profit is expected to increase by 0.02, resulting in a total gross profit of 420million[10].NewMarkets−Businessvolumeinnewmarketsisanticipatedtogrowby22.1420 million [10]. New Markets - Business volume in new markets is anticipated to grow by 22.1% to 28 million parcels, with market share slightly increasing to 6.1%. The per-parcel gross profit is expected to rise by 0.10 to 0.11,drivenbyashifttowardslocalnon−e−commerceparcels[10].ProfitabilityandFutureOutlook−Thecompanyisexpectedtoleverageitsuniqueagencymodeltocapitalizeontheglobale−commercetrend,enhancingmarketshareandprofitability.Projectionsfornetprofitare0.11, driven by a shift towards local non-e-commerce parcels [10]. Profitability and Future Outlook - The company is expected to leverage its unique agency model to capitalize on the global e-commerce trend, enhancing market share and profitability. Projections for net profit are 380 million, 616million,and616 million, and 859 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7, 11.0, and 7.9 [10][11].